40 days and 40 nights
2024-02-08 19:36:41 UTC
Just a warning California. Rain can wash away dirt, rocks, trees,
unwanted politicians, "transgender" its, and queers. This is just a
sample of what is to come.
Southern California has a complex relationship with the rain.
Many years, we get very little of it. But when the big storm hits, it
can bring devastating deluges that instantly alter the landscape and put
people in harm's way.
And that brings us to "Stormwatch," the vital but sometimes mocked
warnings about dangerous weather headed our way.
For days, forecasters raised alarms about potentially life-threatening
storms that would dump heavy rain on the region. It would be the latest
in a winter of extreme weather that brought once-in-1,000-year flooding
to Ventura and San Diego County.
Read more: California storm: After 4 days, the rain has stopped. The
aftermath: 9 dead, a trail of destruction
Many took the warnings seriously. A few scoffed.
But in the end, the grim forecast turned out to be largely right and
in some cases actually underestimated the rainfall.
The National Weather Service warned of an astonishing 6.37 inches of
rain for downtown Los Angeles, and, incredibly, 8.66 inches fell for the
four-day period ending late Tuesday more than 60% of downtown L.A.'s
annual average rainfall.
Elsewhere in the region, Long Beach was predicted to get 6.43 inches;
7.34 inches fell. Santa Clarita was expected to get 6.64 inches; 7.72
inches dropped. Northridge expected 6.74 inches; it got 7.81 inches.
Westlake Village was on tap to get 5.74 inches; it got 7.61 inches. In
Pomona, a 6.67-inch forecast gave way to 9.41 inches of rainfall.
Other areas saw estimates a little under expectation, but still within
range of a memorable storm. Pasadena has so far received 8.61 inches of
rain impressive, but shy of an eye-popping forecast of 9.75 inches.
Ojai was expecting to receive 7.16 inches but got 4.48 inches so far.
The accuracy of the forecast came in part because the configuration and
orientation of this storm while rare for Southern California is
familiar to weather officials so they could model it with a certain
level of confidence.
Once there are forecasted totals in the lower-lying cities of "5, 6, 7,
8 inches, the impacts are pretty much the same" in terms of flooding and
landslide risk, said meteorologist Ryan Kittell of the National Weather
Service's Oxnard office.
The mountain and foothill forecasts were also spot on, with forecasts of
8 to 14 inches of rain; by Tuesday night, the Sepulveda Pass had seen
13.02 inches of rain; Bel Air, 13.04 inches; and Cogswell Dam in the San
Gabriel Mountains, 13.86 inches.
The epic rainfall broke records, caused damage to homes in Hollywood
Hills, the San Fernando Valley and the San Gabriel Valley due to sliding
mud and debris and left longtime residents stunned.
In my 35 years of being in this canyon, this is the scariest its ever
gotten, said Dennis Hacela, whose neighborhood on Beverly Drive was
hard hit.
Read more: Here's how much it has rained in California compared to years
past
Typically, it's the San Gabriel Mountains that get the most rain in our
storms, and it's rarer for places such as the Santa Monica Mountains and
Hollywood Hills to get that much rain. But the weather service
accurately warned of the "potentially historic" nature of the storm
across the entire region and the risk of swift moving flows of mud,
rocks and other debris.
By contrast, some Angelenos had a different reaction to forecasters
after Tropical Storm Hilary marched through Southern California last
August. Forecasters issued wide warnings of what could happen, while
also noting that the path of the storm was uncertain.
One forecast put Hilary's center traveling over the eastern edge of L.A.
County, but there was also a chance the eye of Hilary could take a
western track a direct hit on the west side of L.A. County, through
Rancho Palos Verdes, Santa Monica and Malibu. There was also the
possibility of an eastern track, with the eye as far east as directly
over the Colorado River.
In the end, Hilary took a slightly eastward track, which ended up
producing nearly 3 inches of rain for L.A. a lot for an August evening
but not out of line for a very wet winter day. Hilary's worst impact hit
the Coachella Valley and the high desert, sending torrents of mud into
one area of Cathedral City, requiring the rescue of dozens of residents;
washing away homes in the San Bernardino National Forest; and causing
millions of dollars in damage to Death Valley.
Kittell said more could have been done to discuss the uncertainty about
a tropical storm's path ahead of the arrival of Hilary, which was the
first tropical storm to hit the region in decades.
Read more: Death toll at 9 as storm destruction mounts in Southern
California
Part of the difficulty from that situation had to do with Hilary's
novelty unlike in the Gulf Coast, Southern California has many
mountain ranges, and there were many things lacking in the historical
record that could give forecasters an idea of what to expect.
By contrast, the storm setup for Southern California starting Sunday
while rare has been seen before by the National Weather Service
meteorologists in Oxnard, helping to narrow down the prediction.
Exactly as anticipated, the core of the low pressure system fueling
Californias storm stalled along the coast just off San Francisco. The
standard sea level pressure globally is about 1,013 millibars; usually,
when you get just below 1,000 millibars or so is when you start to have
a more impactful storm, and this time, the central pressure got down to
978 millibars, said Dalton Behringer, a National Weather Service
meteorologist for the Monterey office.
Its just a lot stronger than we normally see, Behringer said.
The storm also strengthened quite quickly. Adjusted for the latitude for
the San Francisco Bay Area, a 17-millibar drop in pressure over a
24-hour period at the center of the storm qualifies it as a bomb
cyclone, and is an indication of how quickly the storm has
strengthened. The actual highest drop in pressure seen in this storm
easily surpassed that benchmark falling by 22 millibars over 24 hours,
Behringer said.
Read more: Storm pummels L.A. hillsides and canyons: Mud, boulders and a
baby grand piano
That helps explain the monster winds that caused hundreds of thousands
of customers in Northern and Central California to lose power, causing
the downing of power lines, and likely tragically contributed to the
deaths of four people in Santa Cruz, Sacramento and Sutter counties
from falling trees.
The weather service Saturday night issued an unprecedented "hurricane
force wind warning" west of Big Sur. Peak Sunday gust reports were
impressive and dangerous, clocking in at 102 mph at Pablo Point in Marin
County, 98 mph at Loma Prieta in Santa Clara County and 88 mph at Big
Sur in Monterey County.
San Francisco International Airport experienced a peak gust of 67 mph;
Sacramento and Santa Cruz, 64 mph; Monterey, 60 mph; San José, 51 mph;
and Napa, 49 mph.
Because the storm moved winds in a counterclockwise configuration, that
meant that Southern California was lined up to get winds from the south
and southwest, and would pick up moisture to fuel itself from the
tropics. So that's why forecasters were pretty confident that the region
would get hit hard by a lot of rain the question was which area would
get hit the worst.
Read more: L.A.'s flood-control system survived epic storm. But it's
losing battle with climate change
The initial projections about three to five days ahead of the storm
suggested Santa Barbara and Ventura counties would get hit the hardest,
but a couple of days ahead of the storm, there were growing indications
that Los Angeles County would face the worst. And that ended up being
what happened.
"This storm, while it was rare, weve had variety like this in my
career. And Ive been here for 20 years," Kittell said. The storm was
exceptional for being stalled over the region for this long of a period,
but "we have analogues to compare it to. ... We have seen things like
this before."
https://news.yahoo.com/forecasters-said-l-monster-storm-130010294.html
unwanted politicians, "transgender" its, and queers. This is just a
sample of what is to come.
Southern California has a complex relationship with the rain.
Many years, we get very little of it. But when the big storm hits, it
can bring devastating deluges that instantly alter the landscape and put
people in harm's way.
And that brings us to "Stormwatch," the vital but sometimes mocked
warnings about dangerous weather headed our way.
For days, forecasters raised alarms about potentially life-threatening
storms that would dump heavy rain on the region. It would be the latest
in a winter of extreme weather that brought once-in-1,000-year flooding
to Ventura and San Diego County.
Read more: California storm: After 4 days, the rain has stopped. The
aftermath: 9 dead, a trail of destruction
Many took the warnings seriously. A few scoffed.
But in the end, the grim forecast turned out to be largely right and
in some cases actually underestimated the rainfall.
The National Weather Service warned of an astonishing 6.37 inches of
rain for downtown Los Angeles, and, incredibly, 8.66 inches fell for the
four-day period ending late Tuesday more than 60% of downtown L.A.'s
annual average rainfall.
Elsewhere in the region, Long Beach was predicted to get 6.43 inches;
7.34 inches fell. Santa Clarita was expected to get 6.64 inches; 7.72
inches dropped. Northridge expected 6.74 inches; it got 7.81 inches.
Westlake Village was on tap to get 5.74 inches; it got 7.61 inches. In
Pomona, a 6.67-inch forecast gave way to 9.41 inches of rainfall.
Other areas saw estimates a little under expectation, but still within
range of a memorable storm. Pasadena has so far received 8.61 inches of
rain impressive, but shy of an eye-popping forecast of 9.75 inches.
Ojai was expecting to receive 7.16 inches but got 4.48 inches so far.
The accuracy of the forecast came in part because the configuration and
orientation of this storm while rare for Southern California is
familiar to weather officials so they could model it with a certain
level of confidence.
Once there are forecasted totals in the lower-lying cities of "5, 6, 7,
8 inches, the impacts are pretty much the same" in terms of flooding and
landslide risk, said meteorologist Ryan Kittell of the National Weather
Service's Oxnard office.
The mountain and foothill forecasts were also spot on, with forecasts of
8 to 14 inches of rain; by Tuesday night, the Sepulveda Pass had seen
13.02 inches of rain; Bel Air, 13.04 inches; and Cogswell Dam in the San
Gabriel Mountains, 13.86 inches.
The epic rainfall broke records, caused damage to homes in Hollywood
Hills, the San Fernando Valley and the San Gabriel Valley due to sliding
mud and debris and left longtime residents stunned.
In my 35 years of being in this canyon, this is the scariest its ever
gotten, said Dennis Hacela, whose neighborhood on Beverly Drive was
hard hit.
Read more: Here's how much it has rained in California compared to years
past
Typically, it's the San Gabriel Mountains that get the most rain in our
storms, and it's rarer for places such as the Santa Monica Mountains and
Hollywood Hills to get that much rain. But the weather service
accurately warned of the "potentially historic" nature of the storm
across the entire region and the risk of swift moving flows of mud,
rocks and other debris.
By contrast, some Angelenos had a different reaction to forecasters
after Tropical Storm Hilary marched through Southern California last
August. Forecasters issued wide warnings of what could happen, while
also noting that the path of the storm was uncertain.
One forecast put Hilary's center traveling over the eastern edge of L.A.
County, but there was also a chance the eye of Hilary could take a
western track a direct hit on the west side of L.A. County, through
Rancho Palos Verdes, Santa Monica and Malibu. There was also the
possibility of an eastern track, with the eye as far east as directly
over the Colorado River.
In the end, Hilary took a slightly eastward track, which ended up
producing nearly 3 inches of rain for L.A. a lot for an August evening
but not out of line for a very wet winter day. Hilary's worst impact hit
the Coachella Valley and the high desert, sending torrents of mud into
one area of Cathedral City, requiring the rescue of dozens of residents;
washing away homes in the San Bernardino National Forest; and causing
millions of dollars in damage to Death Valley.
Kittell said more could have been done to discuss the uncertainty about
a tropical storm's path ahead of the arrival of Hilary, which was the
first tropical storm to hit the region in decades.
Read more: Death toll at 9 as storm destruction mounts in Southern
California
Part of the difficulty from that situation had to do with Hilary's
novelty unlike in the Gulf Coast, Southern California has many
mountain ranges, and there were many things lacking in the historical
record that could give forecasters an idea of what to expect.
By contrast, the storm setup for Southern California starting Sunday
while rare has been seen before by the National Weather Service
meteorologists in Oxnard, helping to narrow down the prediction.
Exactly as anticipated, the core of the low pressure system fueling
Californias storm stalled along the coast just off San Francisco. The
standard sea level pressure globally is about 1,013 millibars; usually,
when you get just below 1,000 millibars or so is when you start to have
a more impactful storm, and this time, the central pressure got down to
978 millibars, said Dalton Behringer, a National Weather Service
meteorologist for the Monterey office.
Its just a lot stronger than we normally see, Behringer said.
The storm also strengthened quite quickly. Adjusted for the latitude for
the San Francisco Bay Area, a 17-millibar drop in pressure over a
24-hour period at the center of the storm qualifies it as a bomb
cyclone, and is an indication of how quickly the storm has
strengthened. The actual highest drop in pressure seen in this storm
easily surpassed that benchmark falling by 22 millibars over 24 hours,
Behringer said.
Read more: Storm pummels L.A. hillsides and canyons: Mud, boulders and a
baby grand piano
That helps explain the monster winds that caused hundreds of thousands
of customers in Northern and Central California to lose power, causing
the downing of power lines, and likely tragically contributed to the
deaths of four people in Santa Cruz, Sacramento and Sutter counties
from falling trees.
The weather service Saturday night issued an unprecedented "hurricane
force wind warning" west of Big Sur. Peak Sunday gust reports were
impressive and dangerous, clocking in at 102 mph at Pablo Point in Marin
County, 98 mph at Loma Prieta in Santa Clara County and 88 mph at Big
Sur in Monterey County.
San Francisco International Airport experienced a peak gust of 67 mph;
Sacramento and Santa Cruz, 64 mph; Monterey, 60 mph; San José, 51 mph;
and Napa, 49 mph.
Because the storm moved winds in a counterclockwise configuration, that
meant that Southern California was lined up to get winds from the south
and southwest, and would pick up moisture to fuel itself from the
tropics. So that's why forecasters were pretty confident that the region
would get hit hard by a lot of rain the question was which area would
get hit the worst.
Read more: L.A.'s flood-control system survived epic storm. But it's
losing battle with climate change
The initial projections about three to five days ahead of the storm
suggested Santa Barbara and Ventura counties would get hit the hardest,
but a couple of days ahead of the storm, there were growing indications
that Los Angeles County would face the worst. And that ended up being
what happened.
"This storm, while it was rare, weve had variety like this in my
career. And Ive been here for 20 years," Kittell said. The storm was
exceptional for being stalled over the region for this long of a period,
but "we have analogues to compare it to. ... We have seen things like
this before."
https://news.yahoo.com/forecasters-said-l-monster-storm-130010294.html