Negro Life
2024-07-21 05:42:30 UTC
In recent months it seemed that Oakland â a city famously grappling with a
rise in crime â had course-corrected in remarkable fashion.
Statistics published by the police department showed year-to-year crime had
dropped by 33% overall by the end of April, a dramatic shift after last
yearâs spike. Mayor Sheng Thao praised the city for turning a corner. Gov.
Gavin Newsom quoted the 33% figure in a news release touting Oaklandâs
partnership with the California Highway Patrol. The news spread through
social media posts and optimistic headlines, including stories in the
Chronicle.
But a new Chronicle review of Oakland police data finds that the city
overstated the improvements actually seen on the streets. More troubling,
the analysis found a persistent problem in the Citywide Weekly Crime Reports
published by Oakland police, which compare incomplete year-to-date figures
from the current year with complete year-to-date figures from past years.
As a result, these counts inevitably, and at all times, create the
impression that Oaklandâs crime trends â up or down â are better than
reality.
https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/40/53/67/25345492/3/ratio3x4_960.webp
Given currently available data, it isnât possible to know just how much the
33% figure overestimated Oaklandâs overall reported crime drop. A Chronicle
analysis of Oaklandâs underestimates in previous years suggests that though
overall crime was almost certainly down in Oakland through April, that
reduction may fall to 20%, possibly less, when the data is fully updated.
The Chronicleâs reporting follows on the work of Oakland resident Timothy
Gardner, who exposed the problem in his Substack newsletter, the Oakland
Report.
âMy motivation is simply to stop the misinformation,â Gardner said in an
interview.
Indeed, at a moment when public safety is one of Oaklandâs most divisive
political issues, driving efforts to recall the mayor and the Alameda County
district attorney, voters do not have access to a clear picture of crime
rates in their neighborhoods.
While acknowledging the flawed comparison and percentage changes in the
reports, police blame technology constraints and say they are trying to
balance the publicâs appetite for crime data with their duty to be as
accurate and transparent as possible.
Police officials, though, do little to correct the record when politicians
and media outlets cite the inaccurate data and trends.
Asked about the faulty data, Thaoâs office provided a statement. âI
appreciate OPDâs efforts to provide weekly transparent crime data to the
community,â the mayor said. Her office declined to answer additional
questions about the issue.
A spokesperson for Newsom said the office had cited data from the police and
would not comment beyond that.
The Oakland Police Departmentâs year-to-date statistics for homicides and
violent crimes are mostly accurate. But the reports only partially count
burglaries and other nonviolent crimes, which are a lower priority,
generally not investigated right away and usually compiled from reports
filed online by victims.
Those online reports need to be verified and imported into a records
management system, causing a lag of up to six weeks, police said.
âThere can be a delay in the overall number of reported property crimes
based on our communityâs use of the online reporting system,â an OPD
spokesperson said in a statement. âEach of these online crime reports must
be reviewed and verified by a member of our staff before being included in
crime statistics.â
The impact of the backlog can be seen in the crime report published after
the week of July 1-7. It tallied 17,969 incidents of what are known as âPart
1â crimes for the year â murders, assaults, robberies, rape, burglary,
theft, auto theft and arson. That was an apparent 33% plunge from last
yearâs count of 26,903 crimes through July 7.
Year-end tallies for 2023 were closer to accurate, percentage-wise, but were
still incorrect due to the undercounting of crimes like burglary and theft.
Similarly, the year-end report for 2022 showed that overall crime had risen
by 7%, though a complete report published a year later documented the actual
rise of 20%.
Spokespeople for the police department insisted that other jurisdictions
experience similar delays caused by online reporting, and attach âcomparable
disclaimersâ to their data.
Yet a Chronicle review of crime data from San Francisco, Berkeley, San
Mateo, Fremont, Hayward and Vallejo showed that other cities either do not
release year-to-date comparisons, or have lags that are less severe and
include more obvious disclaimers.
Lt. Barry Donelan, head of Oaklandâs burglary and general crimes detail,
said the department is not trying to deliberately mislead the public.
Rather, police staff are hobbled by âdecrepit IT infrastructureâ and
different software packages that do not communicate with each other
efficiently. A report management system issued to Oakland police in 2006 has
yet to see an upgrade, he said.
âDo we know there are shortcomings in the numbers? Yes,â Donelan said. âIs
there a desire among professional law enforcement to fix that? Oh, yes.â
Over the past few years, more Oakland crime victims have used the online
portal to file reports, and the old computer systems havenât kept pace,
Donelan said. Itâs frustrating not only for residents and policymakers who
want accurate information, he said, but also for police who need real-time
data so they can strategically deploy officers.
Apart from the weekly reports, the year-end crime data that Oakland
submitted to the state Department of Justice several months ago appears to
have a major error.
It states that in 2023, aggravated assaults more than tripled compared with
2022 â from 3,329 to 11,169 â after remaining steady in prior years. No one
in the Oakland Police Department could explain the implausible rise. In the
cityâs year-end crime report, assaults rose from 3,222 in 2022 to 3,531 in
2023.
Rik Belew, a computer scientist who worked for years to make OPDâs data more
accessible to the public, views the unreliable weekly reports as a snapshot
of widespread deficiencies in technology and record-keeping.
Inaccurate reporting from the police force has many downstream effects,
Belew said. Real estate sites rely on the data to create crime maps for
prospective home buyers. Residents and merchants lack key information about
when and where crime happens. People are deprived of metrics to evaluate the
police chief and other top law enforcement officials.
Nonetheless, the weekly report format is deeply entrenched, and some critics
of the technology still find value in the data, as do police supervisors,
Donelan said.
Crime is going down in many categories, including burglaries, as police
devote more resources toward investigating them, he said. Thatâs led to more
arrests and prosecutions.
Whether the department will upgrade its software anytime soon is unclear.
Put the niggers in jail or kill them. That is the only way to stop the
crime. Niggers are too stupid and lazy to work.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/oakland-police-data-reports-
19545681.php
rise in crime â had course-corrected in remarkable fashion.
Statistics published by the police department showed year-to-year crime had
dropped by 33% overall by the end of April, a dramatic shift after last
yearâs spike. Mayor Sheng Thao praised the city for turning a corner. Gov.
Gavin Newsom quoted the 33% figure in a news release touting Oaklandâs
partnership with the California Highway Patrol. The news spread through
social media posts and optimistic headlines, including stories in the
Chronicle.
But a new Chronicle review of Oakland police data finds that the city
overstated the improvements actually seen on the streets. More troubling,
the analysis found a persistent problem in the Citywide Weekly Crime Reports
published by Oakland police, which compare incomplete year-to-date figures
from the current year with complete year-to-date figures from past years.
As a result, these counts inevitably, and at all times, create the
impression that Oaklandâs crime trends â up or down â are better than
reality.
https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/40/53/67/25345492/3/ratio3x4_960.webp
Given currently available data, it isnât possible to know just how much the
33% figure overestimated Oaklandâs overall reported crime drop. A Chronicle
analysis of Oaklandâs underestimates in previous years suggests that though
overall crime was almost certainly down in Oakland through April, that
reduction may fall to 20%, possibly less, when the data is fully updated.
The Chronicleâs reporting follows on the work of Oakland resident Timothy
Gardner, who exposed the problem in his Substack newsletter, the Oakland
Report.
âMy motivation is simply to stop the misinformation,â Gardner said in an
interview.
Indeed, at a moment when public safety is one of Oaklandâs most divisive
political issues, driving efforts to recall the mayor and the Alameda County
district attorney, voters do not have access to a clear picture of crime
rates in their neighborhoods.
While acknowledging the flawed comparison and percentage changes in the
reports, police blame technology constraints and say they are trying to
balance the publicâs appetite for crime data with their duty to be as
accurate and transparent as possible.
Police officials, though, do little to correct the record when politicians
and media outlets cite the inaccurate data and trends.
Asked about the faulty data, Thaoâs office provided a statement. âI
appreciate OPDâs efforts to provide weekly transparent crime data to the
community,â the mayor said. Her office declined to answer additional
questions about the issue.
A spokesperson for Newsom said the office had cited data from the police and
would not comment beyond that.
The Oakland Police Departmentâs year-to-date statistics for homicides and
violent crimes are mostly accurate. But the reports only partially count
burglaries and other nonviolent crimes, which are a lower priority,
generally not investigated right away and usually compiled from reports
filed online by victims.
Those online reports need to be verified and imported into a records
management system, causing a lag of up to six weeks, police said.
âThere can be a delay in the overall number of reported property crimes
based on our communityâs use of the online reporting system,â an OPD
spokesperson said in a statement. âEach of these online crime reports must
be reviewed and verified by a member of our staff before being included in
crime statistics.â
The impact of the backlog can be seen in the crime report published after
the week of July 1-7. It tallied 17,969 incidents of what are known as âPart
1â crimes for the year â murders, assaults, robberies, rape, burglary,
theft, auto theft and arson. That was an apparent 33% plunge from last
yearâs count of 26,903 crimes through July 7.
Year-end tallies for 2023 were closer to accurate, percentage-wise, but were
still incorrect due to the undercounting of crimes like burglary and theft.
Similarly, the year-end report for 2022 showed that overall crime had risen
by 7%, though a complete report published a year later documented the actual
rise of 20%.
Spokespeople for the police department insisted that other jurisdictions
experience similar delays caused by online reporting, and attach âcomparable
disclaimersâ to their data.
Yet a Chronicle review of crime data from San Francisco, Berkeley, San
Mateo, Fremont, Hayward and Vallejo showed that other cities either do not
release year-to-date comparisons, or have lags that are less severe and
include more obvious disclaimers.
Lt. Barry Donelan, head of Oaklandâs burglary and general crimes detail,
said the department is not trying to deliberately mislead the public.
Rather, police staff are hobbled by âdecrepit IT infrastructureâ and
different software packages that do not communicate with each other
efficiently. A report management system issued to Oakland police in 2006 has
yet to see an upgrade, he said.
âDo we know there are shortcomings in the numbers? Yes,â Donelan said. âIs
there a desire among professional law enforcement to fix that? Oh, yes.â
Over the past few years, more Oakland crime victims have used the online
portal to file reports, and the old computer systems havenât kept pace,
Donelan said. Itâs frustrating not only for residents and policymakers who
want accurate information, he said, but also for police who need real-time
data so they can strategically deploy officers.
Apart from the weekly reports, the year-end crime data that Oakland
submitted to the state Department of Justice several months ago appears to
have a major error.
It states that in 2023, aggravated assaults more than tripled compared with
2022 â from 3,329 to 11,169 â after remaining steady in prior years. No one
in the Oakland Police Department could explain the implausible rise. In the
cityâs year-end crime report, assaults rose from 3,222 in 2022 to 3,531 in
2023.
Rik Belew, a computer scientist who worked for years to make OPDâs data more
accessible to the public, views the unreliable weekly reports as a snapshot
of widespread deficiencies in technology and record-keeping.
Inaccurate reporting from the police force has many downstream effects,
Belew said. Real estate sites rely on the data to create crime maps for
prospective home buyers. Residents and merchants lack key information about
when and where crime happens. People are deprived of metrics to evaluate the
police chief and other top law enforcement officials.
Nonetheless, the weekly report format is deeply entrenched, and some critics
of the technology still find value in the data, as do police supervisors,
Donelan said.
Crime is going down in many categories, including burglaries, as police
devote more resources toward investigating them, he said. Thatâs led to more
arrests and prosecutions.
Whether the department will upgrade its software anytime soon is unclear.
Put the niggers in jail or kill them. That is the only way to stop the
crime. Niggers are too stupid and lazy to work.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/oakland-police-data-reports-
19545681.php